The USMCA, and Beyond the Negotiating Table

Welcome to The View from North America — my quick-take on the macro policy, data, and regional dynamics shaping the cross-border corridor. If you watched the headlines out of Mexico City this past week, you know the gears of North American trade are spinning. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and the U.S. Trade Representative’s team are actively…

Tough straits: Americans and the world respond.

The spring of 2026 arrived and brought with it a sobering reality: the US administration’s “doctrine of coercion” is bumping up against both the law and public sentiment. President Trump’s use of blunt-force tariffs and a superior military have reshaped certain theaters. However, the US Supreme Court has limited the executive’s use of IEEPA for…

Geopolitical shift, a North American shield.

2026 blew in at a dizzying pace, headlined by the “tale of two speeches” at Davos which underscored a profound reordering of global alliances and confirmation that we can no longer rely on the predictability of the past.  This February marks 4 full years since Vladimir Putin first invaded Ukraine. While Russia held its ground in 2025, Moscow did not make any…

A Three-Ring Circus: Plates on the Floor, or One Rascally Rabbit

President pinned below 40 percent approval, deep bond market anxiety, sovereigntist surges, and a (possible) rabbit in the hat. Less than 30 days out from pivotal U.S. midterm elections, a potentially devastating mix of domestic pocketbook pressures and geopolitical alarm is forcing an administration and a President pinned below 40 percent approval into an aggressive,…

Summer in the rearview, no clear path ahead

Summer is nearly in the rearview, but global conflict is front and center. The flashpoints I last wrote about – from war in Iran and Ukraine to mounting trade battles – continue to test the limits of President Trump’s go to economic and military strategy of coercion.  Tehran and Beijing exemplify these limits. Despite the…

The View from North America: Elbows up, clear eyes.

If you needed proof that the late-August heat gets to everyone, look no further than the U.S.–Canada border. Just one week ago today, negotiators appeared to have a solid trade path forward—yet by Monday, the northern alliance had hit a fever pitch. Between the abrupt U.S. 50% tariff threats on steel and autos, Canadian leaders…

Preparing the Fall Runway

Heading into late summer, the picture across North America presents a study in contrasts. Domestically, political noise remains high, while overall economic growth is modest—hovering around 1.3% to 1.8% in Mexico and roughly 1.5% to 2.0% in the U.S..  Yet, underneath those sluggish headline numbers, consumer resilience and cross-border commercial ties are holding up surprisingly…

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