A Three-Ring Circus: Plates on the Floor, or One Rascally Rabbit

President pinned below 40 percent approval, deep bond market anxiety, sovereigntist surges, and a (possible) rabbit in the hat. Less than 30 days out from pivotal U.S. midterm elections, a potentially devastating mix of domestic pocketbook pressures and geopolitical alarm is forcing an administration and a President pinned below 40 percent approval into an aggressive,…

Summer in the rearview, no clear path ahead

Summer is nearly in the rearview, but global conflict is front and center. The flashpoints I last wrote about – from war in Iran and Ukraine to mounting trade battles – continue to test the limits of President Trump’s go to economic and military strategy of coercion.  Tehran and Beijing exemplify these limits. Despite the…

The View from North America: Elbows up, clear eyes.

If you needed proof that the late-August heat gets to everyone, look no further than the U.S.–Canada border. Just one week ago today, negotiators appeared to have a solid trade path forward—yet by Monday, the northern alliance had hit a fever pitch. Between the abrupt U.S. 50% tariff threats on steel and autos, Canadian leaders…

Tough straits: Americans and the world respond.

The spring of 2026 arrived and brought with it a sobering reality: the US administration’s “doctrine of coercion” is bumping up against both the law and public sentiment. President Trump’s use of blunt-force tariffs and a superior military have reshaped certain theaters. However, the US Supreme Court has limited the executive’s use of IEEPA for…

Geopolitical shift, a North American shield.

2026 blew in at a dizzying pace, headlined by the “tale of two speeches” at Davos which underscored a profound reordering of global alliances and confirmation that we can no longer rely on the predictability of the past.  This February marks 4 full years since Vladimir Putin first invaded Ukraine. While Russia held its ground in 2025, Moscow did not make any…

Holiday Cheer, Geopolitical Chill

I want to open this note by expressing my gratitude for your friendship, and appreciation for the confidence you have shown in me over the years. For many, the holiday season invites a moment of pause and reflection. As it stands, I find myself looking out at a rapidly reordering world. From tenuous truces in…

Fragile peace, a challenging chess board.

In my last newsletter, I raised the question as to whether we were living through a transformational moment or more of the same. Now, weeks later, the answer seems stark: we are witnessing profound and accelerating movement across the globe including emerging and complex dynamics in the Middle East, ever-increasing stakes in Ukraine, and heightened…

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