Welcome to The View from North America. As U.S. and Mexican negotiators prepare to meet in Mexico City on Monday, July 20th, we are seeing some progress. According to Mexico’s Ministry of the Economy the active number of trade issues has been whittled down from over 54 to a more manageable 14, and both teams have paved the way for constructive language on regional cooperation.
But the real story? Ever since Washington formally declined the automatic 16-year renewal on July 1st, the background music of North American trade has fundamentally changed.
We have entered an era of “rolling uncertainty”. This is no longer a routine checkup, it is the beginning of a permanent pressure campaign. Washington will continue using these reviews to squeeze Mexico on automotive rules of origin, labor compliance, and Chinese supply chain circumvention. And , while not trade related, immigration, drugs and security will never be too far off the agenda, and the electoral calendars of both countries will only add to the friction.
For investors, this annual cycle is already colliding with Mexico’s domestic challenges in energy reliability, infrastructure, and the rule of law. We will likely see fewer long-horizon mega-projects, with capital shifting toward nimble, high-yield nearshoring facilities that can yield returns long before 2036.
But let’s not lose sight of the stakes. Disruption to this trade corridor doesn’t just impact corporate supply chains, it directly threatens the everyday standard of living for families across the continent through job losses and structural inflation on essentials.
Ultimately, the USMCA is more than a trade pact—it is the foundational anchor for our shared prosperity and a vital shield for North American security in an increasingly dangerous world. Protecting this $2 trillion economic engine is our single best response to rising global competitors, and external threats.
Beyond our borders, rapid military escalations abroad—from the collapse of the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the return of naval blockades in the Gulf, to Ukraine’s aggressive new maritime drone campaign in the Black Sea— require close monitoring. To cut through the noise on these volatile, overlapping theaters, I highly recommend keeping up with the daily assessments from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
I look forward to hearing your thoughts via Facebook, X, or LinkedIn.
Sincerely,
The views expressed here are solely my personal opinions and do not constitute legal advice from, or on behalf of, the firm.
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