I want to open this note by expressing my gratitude for your friendship, and appreciation for the confidence you have shown in me over the years. For many, the holiday season invites a moment of pause and reflection. As it stands, I find myself looking out at a rapidly reordering world. From tenuous truces in the Middle East to renegotiating North America’s economic architecture, the global chessboard moved at a speed that challenged even the most seasoned of observers.
As we come to the end of 2025, the conflict in the Middle East remains in a state of fragile peace. While the October ceasefire and release of hostages was a milestone, the transition toward a permanent security framework remains uncertain. Meanwhile, almost 4 years into the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a peace through pressure approach has emerged with the Trump administration pushing for one peace plan while Ukraine and Europe are actively drafting another, and Russia warns it’s their way through war or negotiation.
To the East, trade talks between presidents Trump and Xi are mostly stable for now, though larger structural tensions remain unresolved. In the new year, we can anticipate ongoing strategic competition skirmishes between the US and China on Taiwan, critical minerals, and the battle for technological leadership.
In the Western Hemisphere, deepening friction is turning the Caribbean into a primary stage for confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela. This tension coincides with a major rightward shift in Latin American politics, as the “pink tide” recedes in favor of hardline leaders like Milei in Argentina, Noboa in Ecuador and Kast in Chile. However, the region remains ideologically split; Mexico and Brazil, maintaining their leftist administrations, have resisted this trend and recently offered to act as mediators to prevent a regional conflict.
Meanwhile, closer to home, projections for the U.S. economy suggest a slow and steady forecast, with GDP growth expected to land between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2026. Lower-income households seem to be the hardest hit by high interest rates and the pass-through costs of tariffs which, for now, are still in place. As we closeout 2025, President Trump’s approval rates also continue to slip on the economy and immigration.
A critical wildcard sits with the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs. Following November oral arguments, justices expressed significant concern over the potential growth of executive power to tax via emergency declarations. If the Court rules against the Trump administration, it could trigger a mandated rebate of an estimated $168 billion in customs duties paid this year.
On the regional front, North American cooperation in Washington was front and center on December 5. There, the U.S.’s Donald Trump, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canada’s Mark Carney were seen on stage together for the 2026 World Cup draw. The three North American leaders’ joint presence , though, seemed to mask a much harder road ahead. Beginning early in the new year, all eyes will be on USMCA in the leadup to the mandated review process in July 2026.
On January 2, 2026, the U.S. Trade Representative will submit its report to Congress, making a recommendation on whether or not to renew the USMCA. This report will serve as the final roadmap for the formal joint review, likely centering on strict auto content rules and supply chain decoupling from China. Businesses are bracing for a report that may also place migration and security at the center of the trade table.
Looking ahead to 2026, the challenge for business leaders and investors is no longer merely recognizing this reordering. Success now depends on the ability to navigate these moving geopolitical chess pieces, understand their impact, and—where possible—leverage opportunity and mitigate risk. I recently spoke to Boards & Directors magazine about these challenges.
Despite the geopolitical and trade complexities we face, I remain firmly optimistic and committed to the future of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. The region’s social and economic vitality is not just critical to each of us individually; it remains one of the greatest forces for growth and stability in the world.
As we look to the new year, I encourage my friends in Mexico, across the U.S., and in Canada to continue to cherish and work towards strengthening our shared region. And with that, I’ll close by simply wishing you and yours a peaceful holiday season and a prosperous 2026.
Sincerely,
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author’s and are not intended to constitute legal advice