Welcome to The View from North America — my quick-take on the macro policy, data, and regional dynamics shaping the cross-border corridor.

If you watched the headlines out of Mexico City this past week, you know the gears of North American trade are spinning.

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard and the U.S. Trade Representative’s team are actively advancing bilateral talks to lay the groundwork for the comprehensive USMCA Joint Review. They are tackling the thorny issues—particularly focused on rules of origin, steel, and regional economic security.

The Canadian team is in Washington DC this week, though up to now they had been seemingly left waiting in the wings. While the USMCA is technically a trilateral pact, Washington and Mexico City have largely driven a bilateral track to date. Tensions over Ottawa's digital service taxes on U.S. streaming giants, alongside lingering disagreements on a unified North American approach to Chinese industrial inputs, mean Canada is facing a much steeper uphill climb to find its footing.

And, independent of the issues related to USMCA, Donald Trump is once again proposing levies of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, including Mexico and Canada, after his earlier tariffs were killed off by the US Supreme Court.

So, what is the realistic outlook for the review process?

Leading trade analysts’ consensus find it unlikely that we'll have a clean, rubber-stamped extension. Rather, the most likely outcome is that we enter a phase of "serial annual reviews." In this scenario, the agreement holds—and tariff exemptions remain—but we will be forced to muddle through sustained regulatory uncertainty. For businesses, managing this rolling, year-to-year challenge could be the new cost of doing business in North America.

While the trade teams debate thresholds and tariffs, the market is already voting with its capital. Recent data from Site Selection Magazine’s 2026 Top Mexican locations rankings find that industrial hubs like Querétaro and Aguascalientes are growing given their deep, highly specialized ecosystem integration. However, as I noted in that report, capital is only half the battle. The real constraint moving forward is structural: can the regional energy grids and water infrastructure scale fast enough to match this industrial demand?

Additionally, in my recent chat with veteran journalist Robert Rivard on the bigcitysmalltown podcast, we dug into why San Antonio is so well positioned for this moment. While Austin grabs the tech headlines, San Antonio’s industrial DNA—automotive, cybersecurity, advanced logistics, and generational ties to northern Mexico—makes it Texas' natural epicenter for the future.

For the full Site Selection piece and my conversation with Robert Rivard:

✅ Review the data-driven state and metro rankings via the Site Selection 2026 Report

🚨 Watch or listen to my full conversation with Bob Rivard on bigcitysmalltown Episode #172.

As I wrote last month, the path forward for North America lies in moving past the “zero-sum” rhetoric that too often dominates headlines. We must recognize that our regional cohesion isn’t just a worthy policy goal; it is our most vital strategic asset. 

I look forward to hearing your thoughts via Facebook, X, or right here on LinkedIn.

Sincerely, 

Antonio Garza

The views expressed here are solely my personal opinions and do not constitute legal advice from, or on behalf of, the firm.

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