As we close out 2024, I want to begin this last note of the year by first thanking my friends, clients, associates, and readers for their support over these past 12 months.  

With less than a month until year’s end, yet another seemingly once in a generation geopolitical event occurred with the ouster of Syrian leader Bashar Assad. For more than 50 years, the Assads ruled Syria, imprisoning political opponents and displacing millions along the way. Rebel forces’ rapid and decisive capture of Damascus on December 8 surely marks a significant geopolitical reshuffling not only for Syria but also for Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Russia, and even the U.S. with Assad’s absence now altering the regional balance of power.

Even before the most recent events in Syria, volatility in the Middle East dominated the year’s media coverage, though as of late, there are signs of movement in a positive direction. Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to rage on. And China has increasingly resorted to shows of force both in the Pacific and elsewhere resulting in a diffusion of geopolitical hostilities across the globe.

Despite so much conflict and instability over the last year, for me, 2024 will still be remembered as the year of elections. From India to South Africa to the European Union, more than half of the global population headed to the polls this year – more than any other year to date. While some of the longstanding anti-democratic sores including Russia and Venezuela continued to fester, for the most part, 2024 was an exceedingly good year for democracy.

The United States had its own election just last month, where Donald Trump garnered a sweeping victory, making him the only other president aside from Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive presidential terms. Mr. Trump’s return to office will likely have a dramatic effect on U.S. foreign policy including rethinking the United States’ role in NATO, tariffs or threat of tariffs with primary trading partners, and pressure to reduce migration at the U.S. southern border.

President-elect Trump has already nominated a number of individuals to key positions in his incoming administration. Senator Marco Rubio has been tapped as Secretary of State, with former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Chris Landau, being nominated as Deputy Secretary of State. Former U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador, Ronald Johnson, has also been nominated as the U.S. Ambassador to Mexico. All three nominees have extensive experience in Latin America, leading many analysts to applaud the nominations and conclude that the Trump administration will recenter U.S. attention to the region, namely focusing on counternarcotics and migration.

Mexico held its elections earlier this year as well. With Claudia Sheinbaum just two months into her presidency, she has rolled out a new security strategy focused on the National Guard and intelligence gathering, announced public spending cuts to reduce the deficit, and doubled downed on her predecessor’s judicial reforms. In the coming months and years, president Sheinbaum will have no shortage of challenges including persistent insecurity (most recently in and around Sinaloa), concerns about transparency and accountability as oversight bodies like the INAI find themselves on the chopping block, and uncertainty on the economy and trade.

Tensions on trade have already begun after president-elect Trump in November threatened a 25 percent import tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada if the North American nations did not clamp down on fentanyl trafficking and irregular migration. President Sheinbaum first responded to the threats in a letter highlighting Mexico’s ongoing efforts and recent successes in drug interdiction and reducing migrant encounters. Then, Sheinbaum and president-elect Trump held a call while prime minister Trudeau, visited president-elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago to sooth tensions.

These tariff threats likely violate the current USMCA and are unlikely to fully materialize, at least not in the way they are currently being threatened. Rather, president-elect Trump’s tariff threats are seemingly being used as a negotiating tactic on other policy issues. Even if they are deployed, it likely won’t be for long as analysts expect that the president-elect will find them to be a “clumsy and often ineffective way of asserting American power”. For now, we have reason to believe that these trade escalations will work themselves out, at least until the USMCA’s mandatory review in 2026.

Other uncertainties for the bilateral relationship focus more on the perennial challenges of migration and security. When president-elect Trump takes office, we can expect him to demand that Mexico do more to stop irregular migration while also making pledges of mass deportations including potentially U.S. citizen children of undocumented migrants. On the security front, the president-elect’s transition team has continued to float the idea of potentially sending troops into Mexico, a position that Mexico has openly denounced.

This year was eventful to say the least, and 2025 is shaping up to be no different. As the Trump administration takes office and the Sheinbaum administration gets settled, here at White & Case in Mexico City, we will continue to monitor these events closely on behalf of our clients and friends in the new year.

Lastly, some of you may know that I serve as a director to the Texas Tribune, a non-profit, non-paywalled newsroom that for the last 15 years has delivered the critical news and information that Texans (and those interested in my home state) need to make informed decisions. While I’m generally reluctant to place an opportunity for support in my newsletter, this is one organization to which I’d deeply appreciate you considering a contribution.

I’d like to close by wishing you a very happy, safe, and blessed holiday season. May 2025 bring peace and joy to you and your loved ones. As always, I hope you’ll call on me in the new year and look forward to staying in touch via X and LinkedIn.

Sincerely, 

Antonio Garza