It’s hard to believe that the holiday season is upon us and we’re already just a few weeks away from 2022.
The past 12 months have brought quite a bit of uncertainty and complexity, but also notable successes. One of the things that makes me so proud to be a part of White & Case is the firm’s capacity to creatively deal with complex problems. In fact, the Financial Times named White & Case the most innovative law firm in North America for business law in 2021.
As with my past end-of-year newsletters, yet again, we’re wrapping up this year with uncertainty, amid continuing concerns over China, U.S. inflation, the Omicron COVID-19 variant, and other potential risks.
As we conclude 2021, U.S-China relations remain strained. Earlier this year, Secretary of State Blinken said that managing the U.S.’ relations with China was the “biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century”. And in last month’s virtual summit, President Biden and China’s top leader Xi Jingping failed to make progress in thawing long-standing contention over trade, Taiwan, and tech issues.
The U.S. economy, while growing, also faces a number of challenges. Last month, U.S. inflation rose 6.8 percent from the previous year, reaching a nearly 40-year record. Supply chains continue to experience disruptions, resulting from high consumer demand and suppliers’ struggle to get goods onto the shelves and e-commerce delivered to shoppers’ doorsteps.
The COVID-19 pandemic left us a lot to mourn in 2021. Over 5.2 million people have lost their lives from the virus to date and many others continue to suffer from the economic impact or social isolation. The recent discovery of theOmicron COVID-19 variant led to new travel restrictions and markets also reacted.
Looking forward to 2022, there are several encouraging signs. In the past 12 months, over 8 billion vaccination doses have been administered worldwide. New variants have shown us that equitable vaccine distribution around the globe will be key to successfully tackle COVID-19.
On another note, freight congestion and supply shortages may be easing, and supply chains could be back on trackby the second half of 2022. Last week, JP Morgan predicted that 2022 will mark the end of the pandemic and see full market recovery. And a silver lining of supply chain challenges is the recent economic boom along Mexico’s northern border, as multinationals move to relocate factories closer to the U.S.
Yet, uncertainty will remain heightened in 2022. Emerging markets are likely to struggle as investors flock to more secure havens like the U.S. And Mexico’s business climate will remain particularly challenging for investors. Despite pressure from U.S. political and business leaders, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has yet to change course on thorny issues, such as his reversal of the 2013 energy reform.
Business in Mexico will be further complicated by upcoming political developments. Lopez Obrador called for a referendum–scheduled for March 2022– on whether he should remain in office for the rest of the term. He will more than likely win given his approval rating that hovers around 60 percent.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on the six gubernatorial races in June 2022, and Lopez Obrador’s allies who are already vying for the presidential candidacy for the 2024 elections. And let’s not forget that our own midterm elections in the U.S. are right around the corner, which will likely make any major activity or movement on the bilateral relationship difficult next year.
On U.S.-Mexico relations, the Biden administration appears to have advanced its objective to re-institutionalize the relationship on trade, migration, and security. During its first eleven months in office, the administration re-started high-level dialogues and the Three Amigos Summit, which had been stalled during the prior U.S. administration. This week, the two governments met to present the work plans for the High-Level Economic Dialogue and the newU.S.-Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities.
In the new year, I’ll continue to work side-by-side with my colleagues here at White & Case Mexico City. As always, we will focus on monitoring developments in Mexico in order to offer our clients the best insights, and legal representation.
As we approach 2022, I wish you all a safe, healthy, and happy holiday season and a prosperous new year.
I hope you’ll reach out to me in the new year to catch up and talk Mexico. As always, I encourage you to stay in touch via Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.